ORLANDO, Fla. — Colorado State University has released its 2026 Atlantic basin hurricane season forecast. Overall, CSU predicts a “well below-normal season.”
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The initial forecast was released on April 9 and recently updated on July 8. It includes predictions for named storms, hurricanes, tropical depressions, and accumulated cyclone energy. An additional update will be released on August 5.
CSU predicts that moderate El Niño conditions are “likely to intensify over the next few months, with a high potential for a strong El Niño for the peak of hurricane season.” It also states that sea surface temperatures across both the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean are “near their long-term averages.”
“We anticipate the powerful El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving high levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear,” the report reads. “We are forecasting a well below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”
For the 2026 season, CSU forecasts nine named storms (five less than the average of 14, and four less than 2025’s 13 named storms), four hurricanes (the average being seven), and one major storm rated at a Category 3 or higher. The average Category 3+ storm is listed as three.
Despite this, CSU still strongly urges coastal residents to prepare for any unanticipated inclement weather.
“It only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season,” the report says.
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