Trump has made the midterms all about himself. Will it work?

WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump likes to play make-believe with his supporters.

“Just close your eyes,” he tells them, “and pretend I'm on the ballot.”

It's a typically self-involved appeal from someone who has been the center of the nation's political gravity for more than a decade. Now, he's finishing the midterms with a cross-country blitz of campaign rallies that allow him to bask in applause when he's otherwise profoundly unpopular.

In a year marked by the war with Iran, fears about artificial intelligence, redistricting fights, high energy prices and increasing concerns about the cost of living, Trump's deeply personal approach might be the election cycle's biggest gamble.

Republicans still love the president, who remains dominant even as he approaches the back half of his second term. But his approval ratings are low enough to potentially sink his party and its bid to maintain control of Congress.

“I don’t think there’s anybody that wants Donald Trump out there at these rallies more than Democratic candidates," said Jessica Mackler, president of EMILY’s List, which focuses on electing Democratic women who support abortion rights.

Every time there's another Trump event, she said, “we look at that as a win.”

White House spokesperson Davis Ingle said Trump is “the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party.”

“The choice has never been more clear,” he said in a statement. “Doubling down on President Trump’s winning, commonsense agenda, or the Democrats’ extreme liberal policies and obstruction.”

Trump thinks the way to win elections is more Trump

It goes far beyond a whirlwind rally schedule.

The president organized even small details of the first-ever Republican midterm convention last month in Dallas, speaking both nights. He also was depicted there as the Marlboro Man, a cowboy on horseback and with a white Stetson who could ride to the rescue, on everything from baseball caps to beer cozies.

Trump even has a personal spin on his blockbuster attempt to win over voters by pledging big checks if Republicans hold Congress, saying "I'll give you $5,000" even though the improbable idea would likely need lawmaker approval.

Political groups associated with the president have spent at least around $277 million since Sept. 1 to help Republicans — a staggering sum that nonetheless didn't completely drain the $416 million that Trump's flagship Super PAC, MAGA Inc., had in the bank to start last month.

But that wasn't enough for Trump. He used taxpayer funding to run television ads celebrating himself, including one nearly identical to a spot from 2024 — the last time he really was on the ballot.

It's consistent with a self-centered, second-term approach

From expanding executive power, to turning the presidency into a profit center for his family, to molding the White House in his own gilded image, Trump's self regard has escalated since he won back the White House.

“I can do stuff that is unbelievable," he bragged at a rally in Kentucky.

Trump crammed the Oval Office with gold flourishes, demolished the East Wing to build a sprawling ballroom and converted the Rose Garden into a patio space reminiscent of his Mar-a-Lago estate. There's also a new helipad that he showed off to Xi Jinping, China's communist leader, during a recent visit.

The president is focused on reshaping Washington as well, dispatching National Guard troops to the streets, closing the Kennedy Center after failed attempts to add his name to the building, planning a towering arch just outside the city and pushing to revamp a century-old public golf course.

Trump has wielded his iron grip on the Republican Party in ways that could hurt its chances in some races. He helped Ken Paxton, who has a history of legal and ethical problems, defeat incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the Texas primary, making the general election campaign against Democrat James Talarico more competitive.

Trump also clashed with North Carolina Sen. Tom Tillis, prompting him to retire, and pushed Michael Whatley to run. Now Republicans are bracing to lose the seat to former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper.

Trump is ‘the dividing line’ in the midterms

The Trump-centric approach backfired during his first term in 2018, when a similar presidential rally barrage didn't stop Democrats from retaking House control.

This time, many of the issues that helped Trump win reelection in 2024, such as his handling of the economy, could prove to be liabilities for Republicans.

Just 17% of U.S. adults approve of Trump's handling of the cost of living, as the Iran war keeps fuel prices high and stokes inflation fears, according to an AP-NORC poll conducted in late September.

The White House points to highlights beyond Trump's personal appeal, like efforts to lower prescription drug prices, stimulate domestic manufacturing, crack down on the U.S.-Mexico border and oppose transgender rights.

But longtime Michigan pollster Richard Czuba said the president's decision to focus on himself has prevented Republicans from courting conservative voters disappointed in Trump.

“He’s literally driving people who disagree with him to the Democratic side," Czuba said.

“The dividing line is how voters feel about Donald Trump,” he added. “And there’s a whole lot more voters who disapprove of Donald Trump than approve of Donald Trump.”

A CNN/SSRS poll conducted in mid-October found that about 4 in 10 registered voters suggested they'd think of their vote for Congress as more about sending a message that they oppose Trump. Only about 2 in 10 said they would be sending a message supporting him.

Trump's rally whirlwind has kept him on friendly turf

Even while hopscotching the country, the president has generally stuck to reliably red states. When he goes to battlegrounds, he mostly visits conservative areas, thus ensuring especially adoring crowds.

A pre-speech video likens the president to a global savior, booming repeatedly, “God gave us Trump," and he usually spends more of his speeches repeating past grievances than talking about next week's Election Day.

The idea is to energize the Republican base while avoiding backlash in swing states — and also potentially reaching television viewers who see the adulation for Trump and may vote Republican elsewhere around the country.

“I always cater to my base," Trump recently told the Washington Examiner, when asked if he was focusing too much on sympathetic rallygoers, rather than wooing independents.

Trump’s endorsement can be enough for some. Cindy Downes, a 67-year-old retiree from North Liberty, Iowa, cast an early ballot for Rep. Ashley Hinson for U.S. Senate and Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks' reelection.

“The number one reason: POTUS supports them,” said Downes, who wore a MAGA hat to a recent campaign event. “I trust him. I trust his judgment.”

But LuAnn Bird, 72, of Hales Corners, Wisconsin, said opposing Trump was one of many reasons she’s supporting Democrats.

"It just feels so good, not just to go against Trump, but to go for something," said Bird, who attended a Milwaukee rally where former Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris appeared with the Democratic gubernatorial candidate David Crowley. "I want to see an aggressive, progressive agenda."

Mackler of EMILY’S List recently spent time in states Trump has visited, including Georgia, Florida and Ohio. She said the president's approach exposes a disconnect with voters who "are so frustrated and fed up with this agenda that’s making their lives worse."

“That’s what’s driving opportunity on the ballot,” she said, "including in states and races and places that we would not have imagined would be in play.”

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Associated Press writers Scott Bauer in Milwaukee, Hannah Fingerhut in Coralville, Iowa, and Amelia Thomson DeVeaux in Washington contributed to this report.