ORLANDO, Fla. — A potential tropical low in the southern Gulf is being closely monitored as it could turn northward late this week, bringing heavy rain to parts of the Gulf Coast and Deep South this weekend.
The system currently has a 70% chance of developing over the next five days, according to the latest forecast information.
The key period to watch will be late Wednesday into Thursday.
By then, forecasters expect enough energy to be present for a more organized tropical disturbance to develop and begin moving north.
It remains too early to determine whether the system will become a named tropical storm.
Several factors could limit its strength, including relatively strong wind shear across the Gulf region.
If the system does develop, it is most likely to remain a tropical depression while meandering across the southern Gulf.
Some of the more aggressive forecast models show a potential path toward the Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama or northwest Florida coast.
However, there remains considerable uncertainty in the forecast, and residents along the Gulf Coast should not focus on any one projected path this far out.
Even if the system becomes a tropical storm, there may not be enough time for it to strengthen significantly before reaching the coast.
Under the current scenarios, the system would have only about 36 to 48 hours over the warm Gulf waters before potentially making landfall Saturday.
Regardless of whether the system becomes a tropical depression, tropical storm or remains an area of disorganized weather, heavy rain is expected to be the biggest concern next weekend.
That could be especially important across the Deep South, where many areas have already received substantial rainfall in recent days.
Additional tropical moisture could increase the risk of flooding, particularly in areas with saturated ground or poor drainage.
Forecasters will be watching the system closely as it organizes over the next several days.
The forecast should become more reliable once the disturbance forms and begins its northward movement.
If the system strengthens enough to become a tropical storm, it would receive the name Isaias.
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