ORLANDO, Fla. — The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says that, in order for Central Florida’s drought to end, the region will need to receive approximately 13.66 inches of rain within one month.
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The map, whose values are calculated based on the PHDI, also states that the probability of the region’s drought ending is only 0.10%.
According to NOAA, PHDI (or the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index), is “the essential starting point for determining the needed precipitation.”
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The index utilizes a “water budget methodology and series of equations to calculate a drought index based on precipitation and temperature observations as input.” Those equations include values such as water supply (precipitation), water demand, and a soil moisture component.
When calculated, negative values indicate drought and positive PHDI values indicate wet spell conditions.
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A drought, which the NOAA defines as “an imbalance between natural water supply and water demand resulting from an unusual weather pattern,” is considered over once the PHDI for a region is valued at -0.5.
The NOAA currently lists Central Florida as having a -4.44 PHDI.
According to the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) drought map, Central Florida lies within the D1 (Moderate Drought), D2 (Severe Drought), and D3 (Extreme Drought) categories, depending on the region.
Should hot and dry conditions endure, in three months, Central Florida will be at a -2.67 PHDI, still far from that -0.5 PHDI needed for the drought to be considered over.
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